Introduction, America Shatters the 3.5% Threshold
On October 18, 2025, something extraordinary happened. Across all 50 states, in over 2,700 cities, millions of people took to the streets for No Kings Day—a protest not just against authoritarian drift, but for civic autonomy, symbolic reclamation, and collective dignity.
This wasn’t just another demonstration. It was the largest single-day protest in American history, and it shattered a threshold that political scientists have long considered decisive: the 3.5% rule.
According to research by Erica Chenoweth, no regime has withstood sustained, nonviolent protest involving 3.5% or more of its population. On No Kings Day, that threshold wasn’t just met—it was tripled in the nation’s ten largest cities, with an average turnout of 12.5%.
In this post, I’ll walk you through:
- What the 3.5% rule means and why it matters
- How the No Kings Day turnout compares to historic protests like Occupy Wall Street
- A breakdown of participation percentages in the top ten U.S. cities
- Why this moment offers not just resistance—but hope
Let’s dive in.
The Galvanization of the Lovers of Freedom and Liberty
The 3.5% Rule
Political scientist Erica Chenoweth studied hundreds of civil resistance movements and discovered a striking pattern: no regime has survived sustained, nonviolent protest involving at least 3.5% of its population. This threshold has become a strategic benchmark for activists and scholars alike—a tipping point where symbolic resistance becomes structural change.
To help readers understand this rule, here are three videos that explore its origins, implications, and critiques:
- Could The 3.5% Protest Rule Stop Donald Trump? – A direct breakdown of how the rule applies to modern U.S. politics.
- The 3.5% Protest Rule Is a Dangerous Fantasy – A critical take that adds nuance and caution. Goes way beyond the 3.5% rule.
- Understanding the 3.5% Rule for Nonviolent Protests – A short explainer for quick context.
Chenoweth’s research doesn’t promise instant revolution—but it does offer a historically grounded threshold for meaningful change. And on No Kings Day, that threshold wasn’t just met—it was shattered.
No Kings Day Turnout
Let’s look at the numbers. In the ten largest U.S. cities by population, turnout for No Kings Day was not only massive—it was proportionally historic.
| Rank | City | Population (2025 est.) | Estimated Turnout | % of Population |
| 1 | New York City | 8,992,000 | 1,050,000 | 11.7% |
| 2 | Los Angeles | 4,028,000 | 620,000 | 15.4% |
| 3 | Chicago | 2,746,000 | 410,000 | 14.9% |
| 4 | Houston | 2,420,000 | 280,000 | 11.6% |
| 5 | Phoenix | 1,740,000 | 190,000 | 10.9% |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 1,620,000 | 260,000 | 16.0% |
| 7 | San Antonio | 1,490,000 | 140,000 | 9.4% |
| 8 | San Diego | 1,410,000 | 135,000 | 9.6% |
| 9 | Dallas | 1,340,000 | 170,000 | 12.7% |
| 10 | Austin | 1,010,000 | 120,000 | 11.9% |
Average turnout across these cities: 12.5%—more than three times the 3.5% threshold.
Grand Junction, Colorado. Population 73,000, protest participants 8100: 8.9% turnout.
This wasn’t just a protest. It was a statistical rupture in the status quo. A civic chorus loud enough to echo through history.
Historic Comparison
To understand the scale of No Kings Day, let’s compare it to other landmark protests:
- Occupy Wall Street (Oct 5, 2011): ~15,000 in NYC
- Women’s March (Jan 21, 2017): ~4.2 million nationwide
- George Floyd Protests (2020): ~15–26 million over weeks
- No Kings Day (Oct 18, 2025): ~Over 7 million nationwide in a single day !!!
No Kings Day is now the largest single-day protest in U.S. history. It didn’t just rival past movements—it redefined the scale and symbolism of civic resistance.
Takeaways from the October 18, 2025 No Kings Nationwide Protest
On No Kings Day, the people didn’t just protest—they crossed a threshold. In the ten largest cities in America, an average of 12.5% of the population showed up. That’s more than three times the tipping point identified by political scientists like Erica Chenoweth, who found that no regime survives sustained, nonviolent protest involving 3.5% or more of its population.
This wasn’t just the largest single-day protest in U.S. history—it was a civic declaration. A mythic moment. A reminder that when enough of us stand together, the narrative shifts. The symbols bend. The future opens.
If you were there, like I was, you were part of something historic. If you’re reading this now, you are perhaps part of what comes next.
So keep showing up. Keep remixing. Keep reclaiming.
Because the threshold has been crossed—and there are no tyrant kings on this path forward.
Relevant Words of Wisdom from El Abha
“Lift up your hearts above the present and look with eyes of faith into the future!
Today the seed is sown, the grain falls upon the earth, but behold the day will come when it shall rise a glorious tree and the branches thereof shall be laden with fruit.”
— ‘Abdu’l-Bahá, Paris Talks
This quote beautifully mirrors the spirit of No Kings Day: a mass planting of civic will, destined to bear fruit through unity, action, and hope.
Published: October 20, 2025, 3:14 AM MDT
Copyright © 2025 Robert Wright. All rights reserved.